EIA Forecasts Shift in Energy Mix Toward Renewable Fuels

12/15/2009

In its long-term outlook released on Dec. 14, the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecast that US energy consumption will increase 14 percent by 2035. At the same time, the US will become less reliant on oil and other fossil fuels to meet its energy needs. The EIA forecast that, over the next 25 years, the fossil fuel share of US energy demand will fall from the current 84 percent to 78 percent. Ethanol is expected to account for 17 percent of US gasoline consumption by 2035. The EIA also forecast that there will be greater vehicle fuel efficiency and an increase in biofuels that will reduce net oil imports from a peak of 60 percent in 2005-2006 to 45 percent in 2035, with fuel consumption growing from 19 million barrels per day in 2008 to 22 million barrels per day in 2035, with almost all of that increase from biofuels. The EIA also said that the US will rely more on solar, wind and other renewable energy sources to meet its energy needs. Renewables share of electricity generation will show the biggest percentage growth (from 9 percent in 2008 to 17 percent in 2035, based on renewable incentives in more than half the states). This will come as policies will stress energy efficiency and alternative fuels at the same time that energy prices are higher. Altogether, the EIA sees this as combining to shift the energy mix toward renewable fuels.

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