09/29/2009
Senators Barbara Boxer (D., Calif.) and John Kerry (D., Mass.) are expected to introduce climate-change legislation this Wednesday (Sept. 30) that is expected to include deeper cuts in US greenhouse gas emissions than the bill already approved by the House and will include measures that prevent excessive volatility in a carbon emissions trading market, reports indicate. However, it likely will not be until mid to late October before the legislation is first taken by the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, which Boxer chairs.
From 2005 levels, the Senate bill is expected to include a requirement that the US cut greenhouse gas emissions by 20 percent by 2020. This would be an increase from the House-passed bill that requires a 17 percent cut over the 15-year period. Like the House bill, reports indicate that the Senate language will have provisions that would release additional emission allowances from a "strategic reserve" into carbon markets to control increases in carbon prices.
Aides on the Environment and Public Works Committee have been working with their counterparts in the Senate Finance Committee, the Senate Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry Committee, and the Senate Foreign Relations Committee to get their input on language for the Boxer bill.
Though the legislation has a good chance of clearing the Environment and Public Works Committee (where Democrats hold a 12-7 majority), the bill also must pass out of several other Senate committees before it can be brought to the Senate floor. These include the Senate Commerce, Science, and Transportation Committee and the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee that have jurisdiction over the climate bill. It also faces competition with the President Obama's health care reform and unease among legislators who will not want to place further obstacles on the US economy that could struggle to slip out of the economic recession.
A growing number of observers continue to believe the climate-change issue will not be settled until 2010 or even until after the November 2010 elections.
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D., Nev.) last week raised the possibility that the Senate floor action on the climate change bill could be pushed well into 2010. On the other hand, Reid could bring to the Senate floor the legislation that already has passed the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, which includes a renewable electricity standard and more stringent efficiency measures but has no limits on greenhouse gas emissions. Though Reid has said that he supports combining the climate and energy measures into a single bill to be considered on the Senate floor, Reid likely will not make a decision on that until the Boxer-Kerry bill is unveiled later this week.
Nonetheless, chances are growing that US climate negotiators may be left without a clear signal of whether the US Congress supports capping US emissions under any new global climate deal, which negotiators hope to conclude at the Dec. 7-18 United Nations climate change talks in Copenhagen.
The end result of the climate change legislation is key to the ongoing US political debate on the expanded use of renewable fuels in the US economy.